ChatGPT Converts at 15.9% or Worse Than Google? The Conversion Paradox Explained

One study shows ChatGPT traffic converts at 15.9% - nearly 9x better than Google Organic's 1.76%.

Another study shows ChatGPT converts worse than Google, email, and affiliate links.

Both studies are credible. Both used real ecommerce data. Both published in 2025. So which one is right?

The answer reveals something critical about ChatGPT commerce that nobody's talking about: success isn't universal. Specific factors determine whether ChatGPT will drive conversions for YOUR store or send tire-kickers who bounce.

Here's what the data actually tells us - and how to predict which result you'll see.

Study 1: The 15.9% Conversion Winner

Source: Seer Interactive case study (June 2025) Data: Single client, October 2024 - April 2025 Result: ChatGPT crushed traditional channels

The numbers:

• ChatGPT: 15.9% conversion rate
• Google Organic: 1.76% conversion rate
• Perplexity: 10.5%
• Claude: 5.0%
• Gemini: 3.0%

ChatGPT visitors also showed stronger engagement - 2.3 pages per session versus 1.2 for organic search. They browsed deeper, stayed longer, and converted at nearly 9x the rate.

The researchers' hypothesis: stronger user intent. By the time visitors clicked through from ChatGPT, they'd already researched in the conversation. They arrived ready to buy.

Study 2: The Underperformer

Source: Academic research by Professors Maximilian Kaiser (University of Hamburg) and Christian Schulze (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management) Data: 973 ecommerce sites, $20 billion combined revenue, August 2024 - July 2025 Result: ChatGPT underperformed nearly every traditional channel

The numbers:

• ChatGPT conversion: Lower than Google (both paid and organic)
• ChatGPT conversion: Lower than email and affiliate marketing
• ChatGPT conversion: Only beat paid social media
• Revenue per session: Trailed both paid and organic search

Traffic volume was tiny - ChatGPT represented just 0.2% of total sessions, roughly 200x smaller than Google Organic.

The researchers' hypothesis: trust and verification friction. Shoppers research on ChatGPT but complete purchases elsewhere, giving last-click attribution credit to traditional channels.

The paradox reveals that ChatGPT commerce success isn't random. Five factors determine which result you'll see.

Factor 1: Product Type & Purchase Intent

The Pattern: B2B software and services converted exceptionally well in the Seer study. The client served business buyers making considered purchases.

Ecommerce products (especially impulse purchases) underperformed in the academic study.

Why: ChatGPT users asking business questions have high intent. They're actively solving problems. When ChatGPT recommends a solution, they're ready to evaluate and buy.

Casual shoppers browsing for products? Different story. They might ask "best noise-canceling headphones" but they're still in research mode - not ready to commit.

Your Store: High-consideration products (software, professional services, B2B equipment) likely see Seer-style results. Impulse buys and commodity products likely see academic-study results.

Factor 2: Funnel Position When They Click

The Pattern: Seer data showed ChatGPT visitors browsed 2.3 pages per session - nearly 2x organic search visitors.

This suggests mid-to-late funnel positioning. They'd already narrowed options in the ChatGPT conversation before clicking.

Why: ChatGPT conversations do pre-qualification work. Users ask follow-up questions, compare options, and eliminate poor fits - all before clicking to your site.

By the time they arrive, they're further down the funnel than a Google searcher typing "headphones" and clicking the first result.

Your Store: If ChatGPT naturally filters for qualified buyers in your category, you'll see higher conversions. If it sends early-stage researchers, you won't.

Factor 3: Attribution Methodology (The Hidden Variable)

The Critical Detail: The academic study used last-click attribution.

If a user researches on ChatGPT, clicks to your site, then returns later via Google to complete the purchase - Google gets the conversion credit.

The Seer study tracked this differently, potentially capturing ChatGPT's assist role.

Why This Matters: ChatGPT might drive significantly more conversions than last-click data suggests. It's doing top-and-middle funnel work, but traditional analytics give credit to the final touchpoint.

This is the attribution problem that plagued social media advertising for years.

Your Store: Check multi-touch attribution. ChatGPT might be driving conversions that your analytics credit to direct traffic or organic search.

Factor 4: Trust & Verification Behavior

The Pattern: Academic researchers noted "early-stage friction" - shoppers verify ChatGPT recommendations elsewhere before buying.

This makes sense. ChatGPT is new. Many users don't fully trust AI recommendations yet, especially for purchases.

Why: Human psychology. When AI recommends a product, many people think "let me confirm this on Google" before pulling out their credit card.

That verification search gives Google the last-click attribution credit, even though ChatGPT did the heavy lifting.

Your Store: Strong brands with established trust may see less verification friction. Unknown brands might see more bounce-and-verify behavior.

Factor 5: Implementation Quality & Site Readiness

The Overlooked Variable: The Seer client likely had optimized landing pages, clear value propositions, and smooth checkout flows.

The 973 sites in the academic study? Widely varying quality. Many probably didn't optimize for AI-driven traffic at all.

Why: ChatGPT visitors have different expectations. They arrive with context from the conversation. If your landing page doesn't match that context or answer their specific questions, they bounce.

Sites optimized for AI referrals likely see Seer-style results. Sites treating ChatGPT traffic like any other source likely see academic-study results.

Your Store: Implementation quality matters enormously. You can't just hope ChatGPT sends conversions - you need to optimize for it.

The paradox isn't actually a paradox. It's a signal.

ChatGPT commerce success is highly dependent on:

1. What you sell (high-consideration beats impulse)
2. How ChatGPT presents you (qualified recommendations vs casual mentions)
3. How you measure (last-click misses the assist role)
4. User trust in your brand (verification friction varies)
5. How well you optimize (site readiness matters)

This is good news. It means you can predict and influence your results.

The Quick Assessment (5 Minutes)

Answer these questions:

1. Product Type

• High-consideration purchase (software, B2B, professional services)? → Likely Seer-style results
• Impulse or commodity product (clothing, accessories, basic electronics)? → Likely academic-study results

2. Customer Intent When Searching

• Users search with problem to solve ("best accounting software for freelancers")? → High conversion potential
• Users search casually ("cool gadgets")? → Low conversion potential

3. Brand Recognition

• Established brand users trust? → Less verification friction
• Unknown brand? → More bounce-and-verify behavior

4. Current Site Conversion Rate

• Above 3% from organic search? → Good foundation for ChatGPT
• Below 2% from organic search? → Fix conversion issues first

5. Purchase Decision Timeframe

• Buyers research for days/weeks before buying? → ChatGPT does heavy lifting
• Impulse purchases in minutes? → Less ChatGPT advantage

Scoring:

• 4-5 favorable answers: You'll likely see Seer-style results (high conversions)
• 2-3 favorable answers: Mixed results, test carefully
• 0-1 favorable answers: Focus on other channels first

The 30-Day Test (Recommended)

Don't guess. Test with real data.

Week 1: Set Up Proper Tracking

1. Enable multi-touch attribution in Google Analytics 4
2. Create ChatGPT-specific UTM parameters
3. Set up conversion tracking for assisted conversions
4. Tag ChatGPT referral traffic as separate segment

Week 2-3: Optimize for AI Traffic

1. Update top product pages with conversational, benefit-focused copy
2. Add FAQ sections answering common ChatGPT questions
3. Ensure fast load times (AI users are impatient)
4. Test checkout flow for friction points

Week 4: Analyze Full Funnel

Compare ChatGPT traffic to organic search on:

• Direct conversion rate (last-click)
• Assisted conversion rate (multi-touch)
• Pages per session
• Time on site
• Bounce rate by landing page
• Revenue per session

The Key Metrics:

• If ChatGPT shows high pages/session but low last-click conversions → It's doing funnel work (good, but mis-attributed)
• If ChatGPT shows low engagement AND low conversions → Wrong audience fit
• If ChatGPT shows high engagement AND high conversions → You're seeing Seer-style results

What to Do Based on Your Results

If You See High Conversions (Seer-Style):

You won. Double down.

1. Optimize more products for ChatGPT discovery
2. Build ChatGPT-specific landing pages
3. Add schema markup for better AI understanding
4. Create content that answers common ChatGPT queries
5. Scale budget if running ChatGPT ads

If You See Low Last-Click But High Assists:

ChatGPT is driving value, but getting under-credited.

1. Shift to multi-touch attribution for decision-making
2. Value ChatGPT's role in awareness and consideration
3. Optimize for the full funnel, not just conversions
4. Consider retargeting ChatGPT visitors who bounced
5. Track long-term customer value, not just first purchase

If You See Low Conversions Overall:

Either wrong fit or implementation issues.

1. Test product/market fit (try different products)
2. Improve landing page relevance for AI traffic
3. Reduce checkout friction
4. Build brand trust signals
5. Consider focusing on other channels first

The conversion paradox teaches us something valuable: ChatGPT commerce isn't one-size-fits-all.

Success depends on what you sell, how you optimize, and how you measure.

Merchants selling high-consideration products to problem-solving buyers will see exceptional results. Those selling impulse purchases to casual browsers won't - at least not yet.

The question isn't "does ChatGPT commerce work?" It's "does ChatGPT commerce work for my specific store?"

Now you know how to find out.

If You're B2B or High-Consideration Products:

1. Set up proper tracking (multi-touch attribution)
2. Optimize top 5 products for conversational search
3. Run 30-day test with real traffic
4. Expect Seer-style results if implemented well

If You're Consumer/Impulse Products:

1. Don't ignore ChatGPT, but set realistic expectations
2. Focus on multi-touch attribution (assists matter)
3. Test with your bestsellers first
4. Optimize for awareness and consideration, not just conversions

For Everyone:

1. Stop relying on last-click attribution alone
2. Test with your actual products and audience
3. Optimize implementation (most stores don't)
4. Measure full funnel impact, not just final click

The data is clear: ChatGPT commerce works brilliantly for some merchants and poorly for others.

Which one will you be? The only way to know is test properly and optimize deliberately.

Start this week.